Analyzing Israel’s Attack on Iran
2025-06-1330 view
On June 13, Israel launched an unprecedented campaign of airstrikes on targets across Iran, including military bases, nuclear facilities, prominent leaders and nuclear scientists.
The attacks killed several prominent military officials and scientists, including General Hossein Salami, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and scientist Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, a specialist on uranium enrichment.
Israel’s airstrikes also hit the headquarters of the General Command of the Armed Forces, known as Khatim al-Anbia, the IRGC’s command headquarters, the Natanz nuclear reactor, and Tabriz Airport, which is the Iranian Armed Forces’ second-most important air base, in addition to factories dedicated to missiles and drones.
Perhaps the most striking feature of the attacks was Iran’s inability to offer a substantial response to them, despite the clear warning signs leading up to it. Two days prior to the attack, the U.S. had evacuated its citizens from several Gulf countries, most notably Iraq, and taken precautionary measures at its bases throughout the region.
It is clear that the Israeli campaign, which focused on taking out the top echelon of Iranian military leaders as well as the country’s airbases and missile and drone factories, aimed to significantly reduce Iran’s military capabilities and shift the balance of deterrence, such that Israel could withstand any potential Iranian response.
It is unlikely that the Israeli decision to attack Iran was taken alone. U.S. officials have indicated they had prior knowledge, and their statements suggest they may have provided intelligence and logistical support. This is supported by the fact that the bombing was launched after extensive but inconclusive negotiations between Washington and Tehran regarding a nuclear agreement. This suggests that Washington wanted to ratchet up the pressure on Iran before returning to the negotiating table.
Iran is likely to launch retaliatory attacks on several levels. The first could include massive waves of ballistic missile and drone attacks, as well as coordination with Tehran’s proxies in Yemen and Iraq to carry out attacks on American and Israeli targets in the region. However, it is clear that the Islamic Republic’s room for maneuver is constantly narrowing, especially since its proxies themselves could face painful attacks if they escalate again.
